Decoding Weather Patterns: What Every Agricultural Retailer Needs to Know

By ARA Conference Speaker, Matt Makens

Weather dominates every conversation in agriculture—and for good reason. Behind what appears to be random chaos lies a surprisingly rhythmic system that can make or break your business decisions. At this year's conference, I'll cut through the noise to deliver actionable insights about long-range weather outlooks that directly impact agricultural retail operations. Some specific topics I will discuss with you include:

The Forces Behind the Forecast

You've heard the terms "El Niño" and "La Niña" countless times in weather reports, but do you understand their true business implications? El Niño, named by Peruvian fishermen centuries ago for the warm Pacific waters that disrupted their December catches, creates rising motion and increased storm development. Its counterpart, La Niña, brings cooling that suppresses storm activity and often triggers drought conditions across much of the U.S.

But here's what you may not know: numerous factors either amplify or diminish their agricultural impact. Large-scale patterns operating over decades can dramatically alter how El Niño and La Niña behave, fundamentally changing what you should expect for your region.

The Megadrought Reality

The Western U.S. isn't just experiencing drought—it's locked in a megadrought that has persisted for over two decades. Since around 2000, the West has been drying out, creating cascading impacts on agriculture and water resources that extend far beyond the immediate region.

While brief wet periods provide temporary relief, they're merely interruptions in a larger pattern. The monsoon flow that typically keeps the Southwest "normal" has failed to consistently deliver, leaving agricultural retailers facing unprecedented challenges in water availability and crop planning. 

Meanwhile, the Eastern U.S. has been in a surplus of moisture, so much so that the Corn Belt is now the hotspot for precipitation – much more so than 100 years ago.

Beyond the Headlines

This megadrought/surplus pattern extends far beyond typical El Niño/La Niña cycles. Ocean and atmospheric patterns developing over decades, not just individual years, create conditions lasting hundreds to thousands of years. The oscillations in both Pacific and Atlantic Oceans can either work together for short-lived droughts or combine to create the multi-decade drought conditions we're experiencing now.

What This Means for Your Business

As agricultural retailers, your month-to-month and decade-to-decade business decisions depend on recognizing these clear weather patterns. Understanding the difference between temporary fluctuations and generational climate shifts can mean the difference between thriving and merely surviving in today's agricultural marketplace.

During my keynote, I'll reveal the specific patterns you should watch, the timeline indicators that signal major shifts, and most importantly, how to position your operations to not just weather these changes, but profit from understanding them before your competitors do.

The question isn't whether weather will continue impacting agriculture—it's whether you'll be prepared when the next major shift arrives.

I look forward to connecting with you and sharing the weather insights that will transform how you approach agricultural retail strategy.